Development and internal validation of a non-invasive clinical tool to predict sufficient omega-3 levels in early pregnancy

Abstract

Abstract Background Complications from preterm birth (PTB) are the leading cause of death and disability in those under five years. Whilst the role of omega-3 (n-3) supplementation in reducing PTB is well-established, growing evidence suggests supplementation use in those replete may increase the risk of early PTB. Aim: To develop a non-invasive tool to identify individuals with total n-3 serum levels above 4.3% of total fatty acids in early pregnancy. Methods We conducted a prospective observational study recruiting 331 participants from three clinical sites in Newcastle, Australia. Eligible participants (n = 307) had a singleton pregnancy between 8 and 20 weeks’ gestation at recruitment. Data on factors associated with n-3 serum levels were collected using an electronic questionnaire; these included estimated intake of n-3 (including food type, portion size, frequency of consumption), n-3 supplementation, and sociodemographic factors. The optimal cut-point of estimated n-3 intake that predicted mothers with total serum n-3 levels likely above 4.3% was developed using multivariate logistic regression, adjusting for maternal age, body mass index, socioeconomic status, and n-3 supplementation use. Total serum n-3 levels above 4.3% was selected as previous research has demonstrated that mothers with these levels are at increased risk of early PTB if they take additional n-3 supplementation during pregnancy. Models were evaluated using various performance metrics including sensitivity, specificity, area under receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve, true positive rate (TPR) at 10% false positive rate (FPR), Youden Index, Closest to (0,1) Criteria, Concordance Probability, and Index of Union. Internal validation was performed using 1000-bootstraps to generate 95% confidence intervals for performance metrics generated. Results Of 307 eligible participants included for analysis, 58.6% had total n-3 serum levels above 4.3%. The optimal model had a moderate discriminative ability (AUROC 0.744, 95% CI 0.742–0.746) with 84.7% sensitivity, 54.7% specificity and 37.6% TPR at 10% FPR. Conclusions Our non-invasive tool was a moderate predictor of pregnant women with total serum n-3 levels above 4.3%; however, its performance is not yet adequate for clinical use. Trial registration This trial was approved by the Hunter New England Human Research Ethics Committee of the Hunter New England Local Health District (Reference 2020/ETH00498 on 07/05/2020 and 2020/ETH02881 on 08/12/2020).