Epidemiological characterization and risk assessment of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus 2 (RHDV2/b/GI.2) in the world

Abstract

AbstractA novel variant of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus, designated RHDV2/b/GI.2, was first discovered in France in 2010. Subsequently, RHDV2 rapidly spread to Africa, North America, Australia, and Asia. RHDV2 outbreaks have resulted in significant economic losses in the global rabbit industry and disrupted the balance of natural ecosystems. Our study investigated the seasonal characteristics of RHDV2 outbreaks using seasonal indices. RHDV2 is prone to causing significant outbreaks within domestic and wild rabbit populations during the spring season and is more likely to induce outbreaks within wild rabbit populations during late autumn in the Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, based on outbreak data for domestic and wild rabbits and environmental variables, our study established two MaxEnt models to explore the relationship between RHDV2 outbreaks and the environmental factors and conducted outbreak risk predictions for RHDV2 in global domestic and wild rabbit populations. Both models demonstrated good predictive performance, with AUC values of 0.960 and 0.974, respectively. Road density, isothermality, and population density were identified as important variables in the outbreak of RHDV2 in domestic rabbits, while road density, normalized difference vegetation index, and mean annual solar radiation were considered key variables in the outbreak of RHDV2 in wild rabbits. The environmental factors associated with RHDV2 outbreaks identified in our study and the outbreak risk prediction maps generated in our study will aid in the formulation of appropriate RHDV2 control measures to reduce the risk of morbidity in domestic and wild rabbits.