Non-malignant pathological results from CT-guided biopsy for pulmonary nodules: a predictive model for identifying false-negative results

Abstract

Abstract Background Computed tomography (CT)-guided biopsy (CTB) procedures are commonly used to aid in the diagnosis of pulmonary nodules (PNs). When CTB findings indicate a non-malignant lesion, it is critical to correctly determine false-negative results. Therefore, the current study was designed to construct a predictive model for predicting false-negative cases among patients receiving CTB for PNs who receive non-malignant results. Materials and methods From January 2016 to December 2020, consecutive patients from two centers who received CTB-based non-malignant pathology results while undergoing evaluation for PNs were examined retrospectively. A training cohort was used to discover characteristics that predicted false negative results, allowing the development of a predictive model. The remaining patients were used to establish a testing cohort that served to validate predictive model accuracy. Results The training cohort included 102 patients with PNs who showed non-malignant pathology results based on CTB. Each patient underwent CTB for a single nodule. Among these patients, 85 and 17 patients, respectively, showed true negative and false negative PNs. Through univariate and multivariate analyses, higher standardized maximum uptake values (SUVmax, P = 0.001) and CTB-based findings of suspected malignant cells (P = 0.043) were identified as being predictive of false negative results. Following that, these two predictors were combined to produce a predictive model. The model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.945. Furthermore, it demonstrated sensitivity and specificity values of 88.2% and 87.1% respectively. The testing cohort included 62 patients, each of whom had a single PN. When the developed model was used to evaluate this testing cohort, this yielded an AUC value of 0.851. Conclusions In patients with PNs, the predictive model developed herein demonstrated good diagnostic effectiveness for identifying false-negative CTB-based non-malignant pathology data.