Quantitative analysis of apparent diffusion coefficients to predict neurological prognosis in cardiac arrest survivors: an observational derivation and internal–external validation study

Abstract

Abstract Background This study aimed to validate apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values and thresholds to predict poor neurological outcomes in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) survivors by quantitatively analysing the ADC values via brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Methods This observational study used prospectively collected data from two tertiary academic hospitals. The derivation cohort comprised 70% of the patients randomly selected from one hospital, whereas the internal validation cohort comprised the remaining 30%. The external validation cohort used the data from another hospital, and the MRI data were restricted to scans conducted at 3 T within 72–96 h after an OHCA experience. We analysed the percentage of brain volume below a specific ADC value at 50-step intervals ranging from 200 to 1200 × 10–6 mm2/s, identifying thresholds that differentiate between good and poor outcomes. Poor neurological outcomes were defined as cerebral performance categories 3–5, 6 months after experiencing an OHCA. Results A total of 448 brain MRI scans were evaluated, including a derivation cohort (n = 224) and internal/external validation cohorts (n = 96/128, respectively). The proportion of brain volume with ADC values below 450, 500, 550, 600, and 650 × 10–6 mm2/s demonstrated good to excellent performance in predicting poor neurological outcomes in the derivation group (area under the curve [AUC] 0.89–0.91), and there were no statistically significant differences in performances among the derivation, internal validation, and external validation groups (all P > 0.5). Among these, the proportion of brain volume with an ADC below 600 × 10–6 mm2/s predicted a poor outcome with a 0% false-positive rate (FPR) and 76% (95% confidence interval [CI] 68–83) sensitivity at a threshold of > 13.2% in the derivation cohort. In both the internal and external validation cohorts, when using the same threshold, a specificity of 100% corresponded to sensitivities of 71% (95% CI 58–81) and 78% (95% CI 66–87), respectively. Conclusions In this validation study, by consistently restricting the MRI types and timing during quantitative analysis of ADC values in brain MRI, we observed high reproducibility and sensitivity at a 0% FPR. Prospective multicentre studies are necessary to validate these findings.