Hayvan Sayısında Artış İklim Değişikliğini Etkiler mi? Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

The Agricultural Sector is one of the sectors that cause the most significant greenhouse gas emissions due to using fertilizers, agricultural mechanization, paddy cultivation, and especially animal husbandry. Although the agricultural sector causes climate change, it is one of the sectors most affected by climate change. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production is essential for the sustainability of agriculture and the food security of people. This study analyzes long and short-term cointegration between agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and livestock activities in Türkiye using data covering 1990-2019. According to the analysis results, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing method, a positive and statistically significant relationship was found between the number of cattle, bovine animals, poultry, and CO2 emissions. In the long run, a 1% increase in the number of bovine animals (BA), sheep and goats (SG), and poultry (P) in Türkiye will increase CO2 emissions by 0.87, 0.09, and 0.09%, respectively. In the short term, only a positive and significant relationship was found between the number of bovine animals and CO2 emissions. These results reveal that policymakers should evaluate people’s efforts to increase animal production to ensure food security and policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.