Evidence of Ecosystem Tipping Point on St. Lawrence Island: Widespread Lake Drainage Events After 2018

Author:

Liu Aobo1ORCID,Cheng Xiao23,Wang Chengxin14,Chen Yating1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. College of Geography and Environment Shandong Normal University Jinan China

2. Key Laboratory of Comprehensive Observation of Polar Environment (Sun Yat‐sen University) Ministry of Education Zhuhai China

3. School of Geospatial Engineering and Science Sun Yat‐sen University Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) Zhuhai China

4. Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development & Yellow River Civilization By Provincial and Ministerial Co‐construction of Collaborative Innovation Center Henan University Kaifeng China

Abstract

AbstractInfluenced by climate change, numerous lakes in permafrost regions are draining, showing significant spatial variability. This study focuses on St. Lawrence Island, where over the last two decades, 771 of 3,271 lakes have drained—a rate around 40 times higher than across the entire northern permafrost region. The surge in lake drainage began in 2018, coinciding with record low sea ice extent in the Bering Sea and unprecedented bird mortalities. Using satellite imagery and machine learning methods, we analyzed drainage events to identify the climatic drivers and potential climate thresholds affecting the island's lake ecosystems. Our findings indicate that autumn peak temperatures above 6°C more than triple the drainage probability, and warming‐induced permafrost thawing may be the direct driver of lake drainage. This research highlights the vulnerability of Arctic lake ecosystems to climate change and assists in developing predictive models for permafrost response, crucial for mitigating impacts on Arctic communities.

Funder

National Natural Science Foundation of China

National Outstanding Youth Foundation of China

Publisher

American Geophysical Union (AGU)

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