Upstream Solar Wind Prediction up to Mars by an Operational Solar Wind Prediction System

Abstract

AbstractCombining the upstream solar wind observations measured by Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN), Advanced Composition Explorer(ACE) and Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) from October 2014 to April 2021, we investigate the statistical properties of the background solar wind at Mars and Earth. By applying an operational solar wind prediction system (Wang et al., 2018, https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2018025) in Space Weather Prediction Center (SEPC), we simulate the solar wind conditions and carry out a comparative analysis with observations to study our model performance. We find that our model is able to simulate the solar wind conditions upstream of Earth and Mars, corresponding to the different heliocentric distances and different levels of solar activity. Furthermore, we apply an event‐based evaluation by analyzing the high speed enhancements (HSEs), and find that the hit rate of HSEs is 70.38% and 66.37% for Earth and Mars, respectively. By predicting the HSEs at Earth (Mars), our model reaches a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 83.93 km/s (65.91 km/s) and 22.98 hr (21.65 hr) for maximum speed and arrival time prediction error, respectively. We also conduct a three‐month case study, from November 2020 to January 2021, analyzing solar wind conditions upstream of Earth, Mars, and measured by Tianwen‐1 (China's first Mars mission), for which our model is capable to predict the upstream solar wind conditions up to Mars.