Rainfall Wet Spells Variability Across Temperature Mean‐Change Years in the Northwestern Himalayan Region

Abstract

AbstractTemperatures have risen at a faster rate across various mountainous regions around the world. A study of the changing rainfall patterns and their spatiotemporal variability is critical for agricultural, water resource, and hydrological planning and management. The goal of this research is twofold: first, using functional data analysis climate change hotspots are determined, which in turn identified most temperature increases in high elevations. Second, these hotspots are utilized to investigate the impact of temperature changes on the frequency of extreme rainfall events in this Northwestern Himalaya region. Our study observed that the frequency of rainfall extremes, such as, at the 90th, 95th, and 99.99th percentile values, is found to be increasing mostly in lower Himalayan regions. A warmer atmosphere leads to heavy precipitation events as the capacity of air to hold moisture increases with the increase in temperature. The continuous temperature rise possibly indicates an increase in extreme rainfall events in the region. Further, this study reports an interesting finding that can help us better understand the impact of climate change in the region: the frequency of shorter wet spells has increased around the recent mean‐change year, whereas the frequency of long spells has reduced. The frequency of longest wet spells shows a decrease across all seasons, leading to drought in the higher altitude region, whereas the short‐wet spell frequency has increased in the lower altitude regions. Insight into the changing patterns of rainfall is crucial for hydrological and agricultural management.