Improving Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Forecasting With Deep Learning and Satellite Image Sequencing

Abstract

AbstractPrecipitation forecasting in tropical cyclones (TC) is vital for warning systems and disaster management. Artificial intelligence (AI)‐based methods show promise in this domain. Here, we investigate two aspects of AI forecasting for TC precipitation: modeling satellite image sequencing and analyzing predictability. To the former, using the Global Precipitation Measurement, we establish a high‐accuracy regional and intensity forecasting method. Through an analysis of precipitation patterns and intensities, we have demonstrated the effectiveness, reliability, and robustness of forecasting TC precipitation. To the latter, we conduct predictability research, which covers different intensity categories and landfall versus non‐landfall TC precipitation. The conclusions are: (a) TC precipitation varies regionally with predictability differences among intensity categories; (b) Forecasting landfalling TC precipitation is less challenging than non‐landfalling, considering TC intensity and paths. The proposed method also demonstrates strong forecasting capabilities in handling extreme and accumulated precipitation within 0–120 min, achieving an accuracy rate of 87%.