The Influence of Space Traffic on AIM/CIPS PMC Frequencies at 80°N

Abstract

AbstractWe explore the effects of lower thermospheric water vapor deposited by launch vehicle plumes on polar mesospheric cloud (PMC) frequencies at 80°N. We use July‐averaged PMC frequencies from 2007 to 2022 from the Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) instrument on NASA's Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) satellite. Launch sites worldwide are typically located near northern mid‐latitudes. Using the orbital launch record for the same time period, we find that the number of launches correlates with PMC frequencies with a coefficient of r = 0.60, which increases to r = 0.75 when only selecting launches from 2.5 to 21.5 local time (LT), indicating a weak LT dependence on global‐scale transport to 80°N. To support our findings, we use meridional winds from the Michelson Interferometer for Global High‐resolution Imaging experiment on NASA's Ionospheric Connection Explorer satellite and winds from the Horizontal Wind Model climatology to interpret the northward motion of air parcels at 105 km. We find the launch LT window that maximizes the correlation coefficient to be consistent with the expected maximum northward motion from the diurnal variation of mid‐latitude meridional winds. Comparisons with Microwave Limb Sounder satellite observations of upper mesospheric temperature and water vapor reveal a strong dependence of cloud frequency on water vapor (r = 0.86) but not on temperature (r = −0.26), indicating that water vapor is the primary source of PMC variability for the bright PMCs at 80°N. We therefore find that launch vehicle plumes originating primarily from northern mid‐latitudes modulate PMC frequency at 80°N in July.