Affiliation:
1. INRAE RECOVER Aix‐Marseille University Aix‐en‐Provence France
2. AXA Climate Paris France
3. Department of Geography and Land Management University of Zaragoza GEOFOREST‐IUCA Group Zaragoza Spain
4. INRAE Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes (URFM) Avignon France
Abstract
AbstractWildland fire is expected to increase in response to global warming, yet little is known about future changes to fire regimes in Europe. Here, we developed a pyrogeography based on statistical fire models to better understand how global warming reshapes fire regimes across the continent. We identified five large‐scale pyroregions with different levels of area burned, fire frequency, intensity, length of fire period, size distribution, and seasonality. All other things being equal, global warming was found to alter the distribution of these pyroregions, with an expansion of the most fire prone pyroregions ranging respectively from 50% to 130% under 2° and 4°C global warming scenarios. Our estimates indicate a strong amplification of fire across parts of southern Europe and a subsequent shift toward new fire regimes, implying substantial socio‐ecological impacts in the absence of mitigation or adaptation measures.
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Subject
Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous),General Environmental Science
Cited by
4 articles.
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