Toward Flash Flood Modeling Using Gradient Resolving Representative Hillslopes

Abstract

AbstractIt is increasingly acknowledged that the acceleration of the global water cycle, largely driven by anthropogenic climate change, has a disproportionate impact on sub‐daily and small‐scale hydrological extreme events such as flash floods. These events occur thereby at local scales within minutes to hours, typically in response to high‐intensity rainfall events associated with convective storms. In the present work, we show that by employing physically based representative hillslope models that resolve the main gradients controlling overland flow hydrology and hydraulics, we can get reliable simulations of flash flood response in small data‐scarce catchments. To this end, we use climate reanalysis products and transfer soil parameters previously obtained for hydrological predictions in an experimental catchment in the same landscape. The inverted mass balance of flood reservoirs downstream is employed for model evaluation in these nearly ungauged basins. We show that our approach using representative hillslopes and climate data sets can provide reasonable uncalibrated estimates of the overland runoff response (flood magnitude, storm volume, and event runoff coefficients) in three of the four catchments considered. Given that flash floods typically occur at scales of a few km2 and in ungauged places, our results have implications for operational flash flood forecasting and open new avenues for using gradient resolving physically based models for the design of small and medium flood retention basins around the world.