An Integrative Framework for Assessment of Urban Flood Response to Changing Climate

Author:

Pal Lalit123ORCID,Saksena Siddharth4ORCID,Dey Sayan1ORCID,Merwade Venkatesh1ORCID,Ojha Chandra Shekhar Prasad2

Affiliation:

1. Lyles School of Civil Engineering Purdue University West Lafayette IN USA

2. Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee Roorkee India

3. Now at Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Virginia Tech Blacksburg VA USA

4. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Virginia Tech Blacksburg VA USA

Abstract

AbstractIncreasing frequency of extreme rainfall induced catastrophic urban flood events in recent decades demands proactive efforts to assess flood risk and vulnerability. Here, we develop an integrative framework for fine spatiotemporal scale assessment of urban flood response to historical and future projected changes in extreme precipitation. The framework includes three main components—nonstationary modeling of historical extreme precipitation, modeling of future precipitation, and urban flood simulations. It also provides robust estimates of uncertainty in design precipitation from statistical modeling, multiple climate models and stochastic uncertainty, estimated using machine learning techniques. We demonstrate the proposed framework for White Oak Bayou watershed in Houston, Texas, US. Two‐dimensional hydrologic‐hydraulic Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing model is used to simulate flood response from design precipitation for historical (1986–2020) and two future (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) periods in three (SSP1‐2.5, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5) future climate scenarios. Results show that nonstationary design estimates for historical precipitation are 14%–25% higher than the stationary estimates for 100‐year event of 1‐ to 24‐hr duration. Contrary to general global trends, we found a significant reduction in future design precipitation in all three emission scenarios. Additionally, stochastic uncertainty in future design precipitations is found to be larger than the modeling uncertainty in historical estimates and climate model uncertainty in future estimates. Flood response in terms of peak flood and total flood volume suggests that the difference in stationary versus nonstationary historical and future design precipitation are substantial to cause considerable change in simulated flood.

Publisher

American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Subject

Water Science and Technology

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