Uncovering Historical Reservoir Operation Rules and Patterns: Insights From 452 Large Reservoirs in the Contiguous United States

Abstract

AbstractReservoir operations are influenced by hydroclimatic variability, reservoir characteristics (i.e., size and purpose), policy regulation, as well as operators' experiences and justification. Data‐driven reservoir operation models based on long‐term historical records shed light on understanding reservoir operation rules and patterns. This study applies generic data‐driven reservoir operation models (GDROMs) developed for 452 data‐rich reservoirs with diversified operation purposes across the CONUS to explore typical operation rules and patterns. We find that the operating policies of any of these reservoirs can be modeled with a small number (1–8) of typical operation modules. The derived modules applied to different conditions of the 452 reservoirs can be categorized into five basic types, that is, constant release, inflow‐driven piecewise constant release, inflow‐driven linear release, storage‐driven piecewise constant release, and storage‐driven nonlinear (or piecewise linear) release. Additionally, a joint‐driven release module, constructed from these five basic types, has been identified. The analysis further shows the module application transition patterns featuring operation dynamics for reservoirs of different operation purposes, sizes, and locations. The typical module types can be used as “Lego” bricks to build operation models, especially for data‐scarce reservoirs. These module types and their application and transition conditions can inform Standard Operation Policy (SOP) and Hedging Policy (HP) with specific inflow, storage, and/or both conditions.