Snow Distribution Patterns Revisited: A Physics‐Based and Machine Learning Hybrid Approach to Snow Distribution Mapping in the Sub‐Arctic

Abstract

AbstractSnowpack distribution in Arctic and alpine landscapes often occurs in repeating, year‐to‐year patterns due to local topographic, weather, and vegetation characteristics. Previous studies have suggested that with years of observational data, these snow distribution patterns can be statistically integrated into a snow process modeling workflow. Recent advances in snow hydrology and machine learning (ML) have increased our ability to predict snowpack distribution using in‐situ observations, remote sensing data sets, and simple landscape characteristics that can be easily obtained for most environments. Here, we propose a hybrid approach to couple a ML snow distribution pattern (MLSDP) map with a physics‐based, snow process model. We trained a random forest ML algorithm on tens of thousands of snow survey observations from a subarctic study area on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, collected during peak snow water equivalent (SWE). We validated hybrid model outputs using in‐situ snow depth and SWE observations, as well as a light detection and ranging data set and a distributed temperature profiling sensor data set. When the hybrid results were compared with the physics‐based method, the hybrid method more accurately depicted the spatial patterns of the snowpack, areas of drifting snow, and years when no in‐situ observations were used in the random forest ML training data set. The hybrid method also showed improvements in root mean squared error at 61% of locations where time‐series estimations of snow depth were observed. These results can be applied to any physics‐based model to improve the snow distribution patterning to reflect observed conditions in high latitude and high elevation cold region environments.