Global and Zonal‐Mean Hydrological Response to Early Eocene Warmth

Author:

Cramwinckel Margot J.12ORCID,Burls Natalie J.3ORCID,Fahad Abdullah A.34,Knapp Scott3ORCID,West Christopher K.56ORCID,Reichgelt Tammo7ORCID,Greenwood David R.8ORCID,Chan Wing‐Le9ORCID,Donnadieu Yannick10ORCID,Hutchinson David K.11ORCID,de Boer Agatha M.12ORCID,Ladant Jean‐Baptiste13ORCID,Morozova Polina A.14,Niezgodzki Igor1516,Knorr Gregor16ORCID,Steinig Sebastian17ORCID,Zhang Zhongshi18ORCID,Zhu Jiang19ORCID,Feng Ran7ORCID,Lunt Daniel J.17ORCID,Abe‐Ouchi Ayako9ORCID,Inglis Gordon N.1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. School of Ocean and Earth Science University of Southampton Southampton UK

2. Now at Department of Earth Sciences Utrecht University Utrecht The Netherlands

3. Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences Center for Ocean‐Land‐Atmosphere Studies George Mason University Fairfax VA USA

4. GMAO NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USA

5. Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University of Alberta Edmonton AB Canada

6. Now at Royal Tyrrell Museum of Palaeontology Drumheller AB Canada

7. Department of Earth Sciences University of Connecticut Storrs CT USA

8. Department of Biology Brandon University Brandon MB Canada

9. Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute University of Tokyo Kashiwa Japan

10. Aix Marseille University CNRS IRD INRA Coll France CEREGE Aix‐en‐Provence France

11. Climate Change Research Centre University of New South Wales Sydney Sydney Australia

12. Department of Geological Sciences Stockholm University Stockholm Sweden

13. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA‐CNRS‐UVSQ, Université Paris‐Saclay Gif‐sur‐Yvette France

14. Institute of Geography Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow Russia

15. Institute of Geological Sciences Polish Academy of Sciences Kraków Poland

16. Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research Bremerhaven Germany

17. School of Geographical Sciences University of Bristol Bristol UK

18. Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research University of Bergen Bergen Norway

19. National Center For Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA

Abstract

AbstractEarth's hydrological cycle is expected to intensify in response to global warming, with a “wet‐gets‐wetter, dry‐gets‐drier” response anticipated over the ocean. Subtropical regions (∼15°–30°N/S) are predicted to become drier, yet proxy evidence from past warm climates suggests these regions may be characterized by wetter conditions. Here we use an integrated data‐modeling approach to reconstruct global and zonal‐mean rainfall patterns during the early Eocene (∼56–48 million years ago). The Deep‐Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP) model ensemble indicates that the mid‐ (30°–60°N/S) and high‐latitudes (>60°N/S) are characterized by a thermodynamically dominated hydrological response to warming and overall wetter conditions. The tropical band (0°–15°N/S) is also characterized by wetter conditions, with several DeepMIP models simulating narrowing of the Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone. However, the latter is not evident from the proxy data. The subtropics are characterized by negative precipitation‐evaporation anomalies (i.e., drier conditions) in the DeepMIP models, but there is surprisingly large inter‐model variability in mean annual precipitation (MAP). Intriguingly, we find that models with weaker meridional temperature gradients (e.g., CESM, GFDL) are characterized by a reduction in subtropical moisture divergence, leading to an increase in MAP. These model simulations agree more closely with our new proxy‐derived precipitation reconstructions and other key climate metrics and imply that the early Eocene was characterized by reduced subtropical moisture divergence. If the meridional temperature gradient was even weaker than suggested by those DeepMIP models, circulation‐induced changes may have outcompeted thermodynamic changes, leading to wetter subtropics. This highlights the importance of accurately reconstructing zonal temperature gradients when reconstructing past rainfall patterns.

Funder

Royal Society

National Science Foundation

Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada

University of Alberta

Australian Research Council

National Center for Atmospheric Research

Publisher

American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Subject

Paleontology,Atmospheric Science,Oceanography

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