Subdaily Extreme Precipitation and Its Linkage to Global Warming Over the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

AbstractThe spatiotemporal characteristics of subdaily extreme precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have undergone significant changes due to global warming. In this study, we employed the high‐resolution Weather Research and Forecasting regional climate model to conduct a series of historical and projection simulations under representative concentration pathways (RCPs), especially RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The aim was to investigate the past and future climatologies and spatiotemporal evolution of subdaily precipitation extremes using newly proposed subdaily extreme precipitation indices (EPIs). The results show that projected changes in precipitation amount, particularly during wet hours, exhibit spatial disparaties. Notably, there are significant decreases along the southern border of the TP and over the western TP, while obvious increases are observed over the inner TP. The southeastern TP, western TP, and southern border of the TP are expected to experience less frequent, shorter duration, and more intense precipitation on an hourly basis. The TP, as a whole, has demonstrated significantly increasing trends in moderate‐to‐heavy precipitation frequencies, along with consistent decreasing trends in precipitation events with short, medium, and long durations. Furthermore, it is predicted that the relationship between extreme precipitation and temperature will deviate from the Clausius‐Clapeyron (C‐C) relationship toward the double C‐C relationship in the far‐future under RCP8.5, particularly over the southeastern TP. Additionally, there are robust correlations between the intensity‐related EPIs and elevation. This indicates that, at the local scale, the complex topography of the region may play a crucial role in shaping the nonuniform distribution of precipitation extremes by modulating associated upward motion.