Evaluation of Summer Non‐Uniform Multidecadal Temperature Variations Over Eurasia in CMIP6 Models

Author:

Hu Yuhan1,Hua Wenjian1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC‐FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China

Abstract

AbstractThe summer surface air temperatures (SAT) over Eurasia exhibit a non‐uniform multidecadal pattern since the 1990s, with amplified warming over Europe–West Asia (EWA) and Northeast Asia (NEA) but weak warming over Central Asia. However, current climate models may inadequately capture this regional pattern. In this study, we evaluated the performance of 44 coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating the decadal variability of Eurasian temperatures. Results show that all the CMIP6 models generally reproduce the largest SAT trends from 1985 to 2020 over EWA and NEA. However, the models fail to capture the non‐uniform warming pattern and the SAT magnitudes are underestimated in most CMIP6 models. We compare “good” and “poor” ensemble, which represent the best and worst simulations of the non‐uniform warming, in order to understand the inter‐model spread. The BMME models capture the teleconnection wave trains from northwest Europe to East Asia, and the associated summer North Atlantic Oscillation like circulation changes. In contrast, the WMME models fail to reproduce such teleconnections. The contrast between the BMME and WMME simulations give a measure of confidence that the non‐uniform warming pattern over Eurasia is tightly coupled with the upper‐tropospheric wave‐like pattern over Eurasia. If such atmospheric circulation changes cannot be reproduced, the non‐uniform warming pattern over Eurasia will not be captured. Our results suggest a fundamental pattern of atmospheric circulation changes that determine the non‐uniform warming variations in model simulations.

Funder

National Natural Science Foundation of China

Publisher

American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Subject

Space and Planetary Science,Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous),Atmospheric Science,Geophysics

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3