Marine Dimethyl Sulfide Fluxes in the Yellow and East China Seas: Scenario Variation During the 1980s–2090s and Its Drivers

Abstract

AbstractShedding light on the response of oceanic dimethyl sulfide flux (FDMS) on the sea shelf to multi‐pressures (intensified terrigenous nutrient inputs and climate change) is of great importance for regional aerosol budget. Here, we designed 4‐group experiments in scenario (the 1980s, 2010s, 2050s, and 2090s) for the Yellow and East China seas (YECS) based on climate change signals gained from CMIP6 and a 3‐dimension biophysical and geochemical model. Results show that the climatological annual mean of YECS's FDMS will rise from ∼6 μmol m−2 day−1 in the 1980s to >9 μmol m−2 day−1 in the 2090s under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2−4.5/5−8.5 scenario, and with multi‐pressures, the FDMS peak in the 2050s is one season earlier when compared to that in the 1980s. The elevated terrigenous inputs affect the phytoplankton biomass and/or community on the inner shelf, leading to the rise and phenology change in the YECS's FDMS between the1980s and 2010s, while climate change has little impact. The influence of climate change on the FDMS is projected to increase in the 2050s; climate change will change seasonal pattern of the FDMS on the central part (middle and outer shelves) of East China Sea (CECS) under every SSP scenario. Thereinto, wind change exerts a crucial role, it will enhance summertime offshore transport and, accordingly, stimulate phytoplankton growth in summer changing the phenology of FDMS on the CECS.