Trend and Drivers of Satellite‐Detected Burned Area Changes Across Arctic Region Since the 21st Century

Abstract

AbstractThe Arctic has experienced the frequent and severe fires in recent years. Due to the unique geography and vegetation type in Arctic region, the fire trend and its driving mechanism are different from other regions and still unclear. This study investigated the fire trends across Arctic region based on Moderate‐resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) burned area product MCD64A1 during 2001–2020. In addition, the burned area change was attributed at spatial and temporal scales based on 15 natural and anthropogenic factors. Results show that the average burned area in Arctic region during 2001–2020 is 31.2 × 103 km2, with a maximum of 51.9 × 103 km2 in 2019. The change of burned area in Arctic region is spatially heterogeneous, with a significant increasing trend (Z > 1.96) in central Russia and a significant decreasing trend (Z < −1.96) in western Russia. There is a clear seasonality in the occurrence of fires in the Arctic, with a peak in the summer months and almost no fires in the winter. Relative humidity has the largest explanatory power for the spatial variation of burned area (q = 0.487), followed by vapor pressure deficit (q = 0.475) and land surface temperature (q = 0.367). The combined effect of precipitation and land surface temperature is the most powerful interaction (q = 0.587) to explain the spatial variation of burned area. The significant increase in time‐series burned area is primarily driven by the decrease of relative humidity. The results of this study are helpful to understand the fire trends and the contribution of climate change to Arctic fires.