Mesoscale and Synoptic Scale Analysis of Narrow Cold Frontal Rainband During a Landfalling Atmospheric River in California During January 2021

Abstract

AbstractNarrow cold‐frontal rain bands (NCFR) often produce short‐duration and high‐intensity precipitation that can lead to flooding and debris flow in California (CA). On 27 January 2021, an atmospheric river (AR) associated with an intense surface cyclone made landfall over coastal northern CA, which featured a prominent NCFR. This study uses high‐resolution West Weather Research and Forecasting simulations to accurately resolve the gap and core structure of the NCFR and provide reliable precipitation estimations, compensating for limitations of radar and satellite observations. This NCFR was supported by robust synoptic‐scale quasi‐geostrophic (QG) forcing for ascent and frontogenesis. It propagated southward from Cape Mendocino to Big Sur in 12 hr before stalling and rotating counter‐clockwise in central/southern CA due to upstream Rossby wave breaking and an amplifying upper‐tropospheric trough. With the lower to middle tropospheric flow backed considerably to the south‐southwest over the NCFR, the increase of the vertical wind shear caused the transition from parallel to trailing stratiform precipitation. The stall and pivot of the AR and NCFR led to intense rainfall with a 2‐day precipitation accumulation greater than 300 mm over central CA. In addition, under the potential instability and frontogenesis, a moist absolutely unstable layer between 850 and 700 hPa was captured at the leading edge of the NCFR, which indicated slantwise deep layer lifting and high precipitation efficiency. This study reveals synoptic‐scale and mesoscale drivers of rainfall outside orographic lifting and reaffirms the importance of high‐resolution numerical modeling for the prediction of extreme precipitation and related natural hazards.