Converging Findings of Climate Models and Satellite Observations on the Positive Impact of European Forests on Cloud Cover

Abstract

AbstractAlthough afforestation is a potential strategy to mitigate climate change by sequestering carbon, its potential biophysical effects on climate, such as regulating surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and energy balance, have not been fully incorporated into climate change mitigation strategies. This is partly due to the challenges associated with modeling the complex bidirectional interactions between vegetation and climate. In this study, we assess the impact of afforestation on low cloud cover using a regional climate model (RCM) and Earth observation data, applying a space‐for‐time approach to overcome limitations that may arise from comparing satellite and RCM results, such as different background climate conditions or different extents of land cover change. Our results show a consistent increase in low cloud cover in Europe due to afforestation in both datasets (3.71% and 3.56% on average, respectively), but the magnitude and direction of this effect depend on various factors, including location, seasonality, and forest type. These results suggest that afforestation can have important feedbacks on the climate system, and that its biophysical effects must be considered in climate change mitigation strategies. Furthermore, we emphasize the role of the modeling community in developing accurate and reliable approaches to assess the biophysical effects of land cover change on climate.