Widespread Permafrost Degradation and Thaw Subsidence in Northwest Canada

Abstract

AbstractLong‐term (1991–2018) thaw tube measurements highlight widespread permafrost thaw and ground surface (GS) subsidence over a large portion of northwest Canada. Statistically significant positive trends in thaw penetration (TP), measured with respect to a fixed datum, were observed at 18 of 28 sites with data that span three decades at a median rate of 0.8 cm a−1. This rate implies thawing of about 22 cm of permafrost over the study period. Similarly significant trends in GS subsidence occurred at 21 of 28 sites, at a median rate of 0.4 cm a−1. In contrast with TP and GS elevation, long‐term trends in active layer thickness (ALT) were less consistent, with 10 of 28 sites having statistically significant trends indicating increasing ALT (median rate: 0.6 cm a−1), and 7 sites having trends indicating decrease in ALT (median: 0.3 cm a−1). The ALT measurements underestimated the thawing of ice‐rich permafrost due to GS subsidence. Sites with high rates of thaw had relatively warm permafrost, deep snow cover, and poor drainage. Masking of ice‐rich permafrost degradation by ALT measurements has important implications for modeling permafrost thaw and climate change reporting. Accurate simulation of ice‐rich permafrost thaw is conceivable for sites where conditions are well‐defined. However, the prediction of subsidence and TP at regional or broader scales is only possible in general terms due to variation in surface conditions and ground ice content. Trends in TP and GS subsidence more accurately characterize ice‐rich permafrost degradation than trends in ALT.