Data Assimilation Using High‐Frequency Radar for Tsunami Early Warning: A Case Study of the 2022 Tonga Volcanic Tsunami

Abstract

AbstractHigh‐frequency (HF) radar monitors the sea surface current velocity and provides information for tsunami early warning. SeaSondeR, an HF ocean radar system in the eastern Tsugaru Strait, Japan, measured the tsunami‐induced current velocity during the 2022 Tonga volcanic tsunami. As an air‐coupled tsunami, the generating mechanism was complex, making it difficult to predict coastal tsunamis using traditional early warning methods. We adopted the tsunami data assimilation (DA) approach, which reconstructs the tsunami wavefield using offshore data and does not require source information, to forecast the coastal tsunami waveforms. Observations from the HF radar and offshore bottom pressure gauges (OBPGs) were used as the input for tsunami DA. The assimilation process started at 09:00 (UTC, hereafter) and forecasts were made at 14:00 and 15:00. The surface current velocity recorded by the HF radar reached the maximum (∼0.25 m/s) at 13:00, which corresponded to a negative phase of ∼2 cm sea level variation observed by OBPGs. We compared the forecasted waveforms with the observed waveforms at Hakodate and Shimokita tide gauges. The assimilation results obtained using HF radar showed a better performance in tsunami forecasting than those using OBPG in this case study. At 14:00, the forecasting accuracy indices were 91% and 67% for the next 2 and 6 hr, respectively. At 15:00, it was 63% and 70% for the next 2 and 6 hr, respectively. We suggest that HF radar could be a good supplement to OBPG for tsunami early warning purposes.