Affiliation:
1. School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences The University of Melbourne Melbourne VIC Australia
2. The Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes Sydney NSW Australia
Abstract
AbstractRainfall during the monsoon in northwest Australia has increased since the 1950s. Previous studies have explored possible causes of the rainfall increase; however, the trend has not been fully explained. Understanding the cause of this trend is important for interpreting climate projections and local water‐sensitive services. We explore the role of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) in explaining the rainfall increase. The MJO, since 1974, has had a longer duration in phases associated with enhanced rainfall in northwest Australia (Phases 5 and 6) during the monsoon. We show that the rainfall trend in northwest Australia is identified only during MJO phases associated with enhanced rainfall, with a large change in daily rainfall distribution in these phases. The increasing occurrence of these MJO phases explains most of the rainfall increase, as opposed to an increase in daily rainfall independent of MJO phase, albeit with some sensitivity to MJO definition.
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences,Geophysics
Cited by
4 articles.
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