Affiliation:
1. Department of Meteorology National Centre for Atmospheric Science University of Reading Reading UK
2. Geophysical Institute University of Bergen Bergen Norway
3. Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Bergen Norway
4. British Antarctic Survey Cambridge UK
5. Met Office Exeter UK
Abstract
AbstractThis paper expands on work showing that the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable on decadal timescales to quantify the skill in capturing the North Atlantic eddy‐driven jet's location and speed. By focusing on decadal predictions made for years 2–9 from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project over 1960–2005 we find that there is significant skill in jet latitude and, especially, jet speed associated with the skill in the NAO. However, the skill in the NAO, jet latitude and speed indices appears to be sensitive to the period over which it is assessed. In particular, skill drops considerably when evaluating hindcasts up to the present day as models fail to capture the recent observed northern shift and strengthening of the winter eddy‐driven jet, and more thus positive NAO. We suggest that the drop in atmospheric circulation skill is related to reduced skill in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures.
Funder
Natural Environment Research Council
British Antarctic Survey
National Centre for Atmospheric Science
Norges Forskningsråd
Met Office
Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, UK Government
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences,Geophysics
Cited by
1 articles.
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