Advances in Seasonal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice With NOAA UFS

Abstract

AbstractThe Unified Forecast System (UFS) is the next generation modeling infrastructure under development for NOAA's operational numerical weather/climate predictions. This study is the first attempt with UFS for seasonal predictions application. In particular, 9‐month hindcasts are performed starting from every month during 2007–2020. The UFS performance in predicting Arctic sea ice was compared to hindcasts by (a) the current operational Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and (b) an experimental sea ice prediction system (CFSm5) at NOAA. Evaluations indicate that UFS demonstrates consistently improved skills than both CFSv2 and CFSm5 in seasonal sea ice predictions, together with more realistic climatological sea ice distributions. Diagnostics suggest that the better climatological sea ice distributions in UFS is related to its atmospheric states simulated with FV3, the atmospheric component of UFS, and reinforced by associated ocean circulations. In addition, applications of the multi‐model ensemble strategy do not present skill improvements over the UFS forecasts alone.