Circus Tents, Convective Thresholds, and the Non‐Linear Climate Response to Tropical SSTs

Abstract

AbstractUsing model simulations, we demonstrate that the climate response to localized tropical sea surface temperature (SST) perturbations exhibits numerous non‐linearities. Most pronounced is an asymmetry in the response to positive and negative SST perturbations. Additionally, we identify a “magnitude‐dependence” of the response on the size of the SST perturbation. We then explain how these non‐linearities arise as a robust consequence of convective quasi‐equilibrium and weak (but non‐zero) temperature gradients in the tropical free‐troposphere, which we encapsulate in a “circus tent” model of the tropical atmosphere. These results demonstrate that the climate response to SST perturbations is fundamentally non‐linear, and highlight potential deficiencies in work which has assumed linearity in the response.