Affiliation:
1. Department of Earth System Science Stanford University Stanford CA USA
2. Department of Geography University of California, Los Angeles Los Angeles CA USA
3. Doerr School of Sustainability Stanford University Stanford CA USA
4. Fenner School of Environment & Society The Australian National University Acton ACT Australia
5. School of Engineering The Australian National University Acton ACT Australia
Abstract
AbstractLive fuel moisture content (LFMC) is a key determinant of landscape ignition potential, but quantitative estimates of its effects on wildfire are lacking. We present a causal inference framework to isolate the effect of LFMC from other drivers like fuel type, fuel amount, and meteorology. We show that in California when LFMC is below a critical flammability threshold, the likelihood of fires is 1.8 times as high statewide (2.25% vs. 1.27%) and 2.5 times as high in shrubs, compared to when LFMC is greater than the threshold. This risk ratio is >2 times when LFMC is 10% less than the threshold. Between 2016 and 2021, the risk ratio was highest in 2020 (2.3 times), potentially contributing to the record‐breaking wildfire activity in 2020. Our estimates can inform several wildfire prediction and management applications, including wildfire suppression, prescribed burn planning, and public safety power shutoff implementation.
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences,Geophysics
Cited by
1 articles.
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