Enhanced Drought Exposure Increasingly Threatens More Forests Than Observed

Author:

Xu Chongyang1,Liu Hongyan1ORCID,Ciais Philippe2ORCID,Hartmann Henrik34,Camarero Jesús J.5,Wu Xiuchen6ORCID,Hammond William M.7ORCID,Allen Craig D.8,Chen Fahu91011ORCID

Affiliation:

1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences and Institute of Carbon Neutrality Peking University Beijing China

2. IPSL—LSCE CEA CNRS UVSQ UPSaclay Centre d’Etudes Orme des Merisiers Gif sur Yvette France

3. Institute for Forest Protection Julius Kühn Institute Federal Research Centre for Cultivated Plants Quedlinburg Germany

4. Department of Biogeochemical Processes Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry Jena Germany

5. Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (IPE‐CSIC) Zaragoza Spain

6. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing China

7. Agronomy Department University of Florida Gainesville FL USA

8. Department of Geography and Environmental Studies University of New Mexico Albuquerque NM USA

9. Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environmental Science Center for Pan Third Pole Environment (Pan‐TPE) Lanzhou University Lanzhou China

10. Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology (LAE) Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Beijing China

11. CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Beijing China

Abstract

AbstractForest protection and afforestation have been identified as a means to partially offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Yet, increasingly frequent observations of drought‐induced tree mortality are reported. Here, we applied a risk analysis framework for global drought‐induced forest mortality by examining extreme reductions in greenness and water content of forest canopies during past mortality events as well as growth recovery of surviving individual trees following stand‐scale mortality events. We defined a drought‐induced mortality risk index (DMR) that explains 80% of documented tree mortality. Rising CO2 alleviated the increase of DMR with short‐term drought, however, the observed DMR increases with long‐term drought no matter whether considering plant responses to CO2. DMR in sites where tree mortality has been observed significantly increased since the 1980s. More than that, drought exposure threatened 0.28 billion hectares of forested areas. Our framework highlights how climate change‐induced drought, especially hotter‐droughts, threatens the sustainability of global forests.

Funder

National Natural Science Foundation of China

Publisher

American Geophysical Union (AGU)

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