Active Layer Thickness and Permafrost Area Projections for the 21st Century

Author:

Peng Xiaoqing12ORCID,Zhang Tingjun12,Frauenfeld Oliver W.3,Mu Cuicui12,Wang Kang4ORCID,Wu Xiaodong5ORCID,Guo Donglin6ORCID,Luo Jing7ORCID,Hjort Jan8ORCID,Aalto Juha910ORCID,Karjalainen Olli8ORCID,Luoto Miska9ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environmental Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou China

2. Observation and Research Station on Eco‐Environment of Frozen Ground in the Qilian Mountains Lanzhou University Lanzhou China

3. Department of Geography Texas A&M University College Station TX USA

4. School of Geographic Sciences East China Normal University Shanghai China

5. Cryosphere Research Station on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science Northwest Institute of Eco‐Environment and Resources Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou China

6. Nansen‐Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

7. State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering Northwest Institute of Eco‐Environment and Resources Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou China

8. Geography Research Unit University of Oulu Oulu Finland

9. Department of Geosciences and Geography University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland

10. Finnish Meteorological Institute Helsinki Finland

Abstract

AbstractPermafrost warming leads to greenhouse gas release to the atmosphere, resulting in a positive feedback to climate change. Earth system models indicate that more than 80% of the near‐surface permafrost is projected to disappear by the end of this century, but with a high degree of uncertainty. Here, we apply the Stefan solution to estimate permafrost degradation under future emission scenarios. We find that the most severe future scenario is likely to lead to only a 14% decrease in area extent of the near‐surface permafrost at 3.5 m depth, and an area extent decrease of 1.3% at a depth of 6.0 m. Relative to active layer thickness increases from historical simulations, we find a less than 30% deepening for most permafrost regions by the end of this century. These results imply that the Stefan solution provides near‐surface permafrost area extent degradation estimates that are substantially lower than directly projected by models.

Funder

National Key Research and Development Program of China

National Natural Science Foundation of China

Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities

Academy of Finland

Publisher

American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Subject

Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous),General Environmental Science

Reference55 articles.

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2. Permafrost is warming at a global scale

3. Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change

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