The Response of the Large‐Scale Tropical Circulation to Warming

Author:

Silvers Levi G.1ORCID,Reed Kevin A.1ORCID,Wing Allison A.2ORCID

Affiliation:

1. School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences State University of New York at Stony Brook Stony Brook NY USA

2. Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science Florida State University Tallahassee FL USA

Abstract

AbstractPrevious work has found that as the surface warms the large‐scale tropical circulations weaken, convective anvil cloud fraction decreases, and atmospheric static stability increases. Circulation changes inevitably lead to changes in the humidity and cloud fields which influence the surface energetics. The exchange of mass between the boundary layer (BL) and the midtroposphere has also been shown to weaken in global climate models. What has remained less clear is how robust these changes in the circulation are to different representations of convection, clouds, and microphysics in numerical models. We use simulations from the Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project to investigate the interaction between overturning circulations, surface temperature, and atmospheric moisture. We analyze the underlying mechanisms of these relationships using a 21‐member model ensemble that includes both General Circulation Models and Cloud‐system Resolving Models. We find a large spread in the change of intensity of the overturning circulation. Both the range of the circulation intensity, and its change with warming can be explained by the range of the mean upward vertical velocity. There is also a consistent decrease in the exchange of mass between the BL and the midtroposphere. However, the magnitude of the decrease varies substantially due to the range of responses in both mean precipitation and mean precipitable water. We hypothesize based on these results that despite well understood thermodynamic constraints, there is still a considerable ability for the cloud fields and the precipitation efficiency to drive a substantial range of tropical convective responses to warming.

Funder

National Science Foundation

Publisher

American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Subject

General Earth and Planetary Sciences,Environmental Chemistry,Global and Planetary Change

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