Probability of Firn Aquifer Presence in Antarctica by Combining Remote Sensing and Regional Climate Model Data

Abstract

AbstractDespite in‐situ observations of perennial firn aquifers (PFAs) at specific locations of the Antarctic ice sheet, a comprehensive continent‐wide mapping of PFA distribution is currently lacking. We present an estimate of their distribution across Antarctica in the form of a probability assessment using a Monte Carlo technique. Our approach involves a novel methodology that combines observations from Sentinel‐1 and Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) with output from a regional climate model. To evaluate our method, we conduct an extensive comparison with Operation Ice Bridge observations from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Application to Antarctica reveals high PFA probabilities in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP), particularly along its northern, northwestern, and western coastlines, as well as on the Wilkins, Müller, and George VI ice shelves. Outside the AP, PFA probability is low, except for some locations with marginally higher probabilities, such as on the Abbot, Totten, and Shackleton ice shelves.