Exploring Uncertainty of Trends in the North Pacific Jet Position

Author:

Keel Tom12ORCID,Brierley Chris1ORCID,Edwards Tamsin2ORCID,Frame Thomas H. A.3ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Geography University College London London UK

2. Department of Geography King's College London London UK

3. Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UK

Abstract

AbstractIt has been difficult to establish trends in the observed jet streams, despite modeling studies suggesting they will move polewards in a warming world. While this is partly due to biases between the models and observations, we propose that another uncertainty is rooted in the choice of statistic used to determine the ‘jet latitude’ — one measure used to quantify the jet position. We use seven different jet latitude statistics, four climate reanalysis products, and CMIP6 simulations to assess the relative importance of different uncertainties associated with lower‐tropospheric North Pacific Jet (NPJ) trends. Our results show a statistically significant poleward trend in the observed winter NPJ across all reanalyzes and using all jet latitude statistics. The magnitude of this trend is most sensitive to the choice of statistic. Furthermore, we find that the NPJ shifts poleward in Autumn under high emission scenarios, which is robust to the choice of jet statistic.

Funder

Natural Environment Research Council

Publisher

American Geophysical Union (AGU)

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