Affiliation:
1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Seattle WA USA
2. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison Livermore CA USA
3. Atmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division PNNL Richland WA USA
4. Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies University of Washington Seattle WA USA
5. Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Oceanic and Atmospheric Research NOAA Seattle WA USA
Abstract
AbstractDiagnosing the role of internal variability over recent decades is critically important for both model validation and projections of future warming. Recent research suggests that for 1980–2022 internal variability manifested as Global Cooling and Arctic Warming (i‐GCAW), leading to enhanced Arctic Amplification (AA), and suppressed global warming over this period. Here we show that such an i‐GCAW is rare in CMIP6 large ensembles, but simulations that do produce similar i‐GCAW exhibit a unique and robust internally driven global surface air temperature (SAT) trend pattern. This unique SAT trend pattern features enhanced warming in the Barents and Kara Sea and cooling in the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean. Given that these features are imprinted in the observed record over recent decades, this work suggests that internal variability makes a crucial contribution to the discrepancy between observations and model‐simulated forced SAT trend patterns.
Funder
Earth Sciences Division
National Science Foundation
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies, University of Washington
NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Office of Science
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Environmental Laboratory
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Cited by
1 articles.
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