Tectonic Landform and Lithologic Age Impact Uncertainties in Fault Displacement Hazard Models

Abstract

AbstractTectonic landforms and surficial lithologic age are essential data for producing quality late Quaternary fault maps and predicting coseismic fault rupture location before an earthquake. However, we lack a clear understanding of the relationship between tectonic landforms and shallow earthquake processes and how lithologic age relates to landform preservation. We assess how fault location error (rupture‐to‐fault separation distance) and coseismic displacement residual (difference between observed and predicted coseismic displacement) vary with tectonic landform and lithologic age for four historical earthquakes. Certain tectonic landforms identified before these earthquakes correlate with lower fault location errors and median displacements below model predictions. Faults cutting Holocene units exhibit the largest location errors, reflecting surface processes that erode or bury fault evidence. This study shows that tectonic landforms and lithologic age have a significant impact on fault location uncertainty and coseismic displacement, which should be considered in fault mapping and fault displacement assessment.