Hurricane Impacts on Land in the Central and Eastern Caribbean Since 1494 CE From Written Records

Abstract

AbstractWritten accounts of hurricanes and their impacts in the Caribbean region date back to 1494 CE We report a new compilation of hurricanes in the longest settled regions of the central and eastern Caribbean region (CECR) that is the most complete yet produced and present basic statistics. We assess likely undercounts of hurricanes due to incomplete documentary records in the earliest part of the record by using the most complete reporting from Puerto Rico relative to the remainder of the CECR. We compare our results with other documentary and proxy data from the region and demonstrate using wavelet analysis significant activity related to the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at inter‐annual time scales and lower frequency activity from decadal to multi‐decadal scales. Our results offer evidence that, along with ENSO, fluctuations in sulfate aerosols are a possible contributor to the hurricane history. The frequency of hurricane landfalls and impacts in the CECR was lower in the 20th century than any time since 1494 CE.