Rift Zone Architecture and Inflation‐Driven Seismicity of Mauna Loa Volcano

Abstract

AbstractThe 2022 eruption at Mauna Loa, Hawai'i, marked the first extrusive activity from the volcano after 38 years of quiescence. The eruption was preceded by several years of seismic unrest in the vicinity of the volcano's summit. Characterizing the structure and dynamics of seismogenic features within Mauna Loa during this pre‐eruptive interval may provide insights into how pre‐ and co‐eruptive processes manifest seismically at the volcano. In particular, the extent to which seismicity may be used to forecast the location and timing of future eruptions is unclear. To address these questions, we construct a catalog of relocated seismicity on Mauna Loa spanning 2011–2023. Our earthquake locations image complex, sub‐kilometer‐scale seismogenic structures in the caldera and southwest rift zone. We additionally identify a set of streaks of seismicity in the volcano's northwest flank that are radially oriented about the summit. Using a rate‐and‐state friction model for earthquake occurrences, we demonstrate that the seismicity rate in this region can be modeled as a function of the stressing history caused by magma accumulation beneath the summit. Finally, we observe a mid‐2019 step change in the seismicity rate in the Ka'oiki region that may have altered the stress state of the northeast rift zone in the three years before the eruption. Our observations provide a framework for interpreting future seismic unrest at Mauna Loa.