Systematic Validation of Ensemble Cloud‐Process Simulations Using Polarimetric Radar Observations and Simulator Over the NASA Wallops Flight Facility

Abstract

AbstractThe BiLateral Operational Storm‐Scale Observation and Modeling (BLOSSOM) project was initiated to establish a long‐term supersite to improve understanding of cloud physical states and processes as well as to support satellite and climate model programs over the Wallops Flight Facility site via a bilateral approach of storm‐scale observations and process modeling. This study highlights a noble systematic validation framework of the BLOSSOM ensemble cloud‐process simulations through mixed‐phase, light‐rain, and deep‐convective precipitation cases. The framework consists of creating a domain‐shifted ensemble of large‐scale forcing data sets, and configuring and performing cloud‐process simulations with three different bulk microphysics schemes. Validation uses NASA S‐band dual‐POLarimetric radar observations in the form of statistical composites and skill scores via a polarimetric radar simulator and newly developed CfRad Data tool (CfRAD). While the simulations capture the overall structures of the reflectivity composites, polarimetric signals are still poorly simulated, mainly due to a lack of representation of ice microphysics diversity in shapes, orientation distributions, and their complex mixtures. Despite the limitation, this new ensemble‐based validation framework demonstrates that (a) no particular forcing or microphysics scheme outperforms the rest and (b) the skill scores of coarse‐ and fine‐resolution ensemble simulations with different domain‐shifted forcing and microphysics schemes are highly correlated with each other with no clear improvement. On the other hand, this suggests that coarse‐resolution ensemble simulations are relevant for selecting the best meteorological forcing and microphysics scheme before conducting computationally demanding large eddy simulations in support of aircraft and satellite instrument development as well as cloud‐precipitation‐convection parameterizations.