Overturning Pathways Control AMOC Weakening in CMIP6 Models

Author:

Baker Jonathan A.1ORCID,Bell Michael J.1ORCID,Jackson Laura C.1ORCID,Renshaw Richard1ORCID,Vallis Geoffrey K.2ORCID,Watson Andrew J.2ORCID,Wood Richard A.1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Met Office Exeter UK

2. University of Exeter Exeter UK

Abstract

AbstractFuture projections indicate the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken and shoal in response to global warming, but models disagree widely over the amount of weakening. We analyze projected AMOC weakening in 27 CMIP6 climate models, in terms of changes in three return pathways of the AMOC. The branch of the AMOC that returns through diffusive upwelling in the Indo‐Pacific, but does not later upwell in the Southern Ocean (SO), is particularly sensitive to warming, in part, because shallowing of the deep flow prevents it from entering the Indo‐Pacific via the SO. The present‐day strength of this Indo‐Pacific pathway provides a strong constraint on the projected AMOC weakening. However, estimates of this pathway using four observationally based methods imply a wide range of AMOC weakening under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario of 29%–61% by 2100. Our results suggest that improved observational constraints on this pathway would substantially reduce uncertainty in 21st century AMOC decline.

Funder

Horizon 2020 Framework Programme

Met Office

Publisher

American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Subject

General Earth and Planetary Sciences,Geophysics

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