Affiliation:
1. Earth System Physics Section The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Trieste Italy
2. GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel Kiel Germany
3. International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling Hamburg Germany
4. Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN) Institute of Oceanography Universität Hamburg Hamburg Germany
Abstract
AbstractSources of uncertainty (i.e., internal variability, model and scenario) in Atlantic Niño variability projections were quantified in 49 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phases 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6). By the end of the twenty‐first century, the ensemble mean change in Atlantic Niño variability is −0.07 ± 0.10˚C, with 80% of CMIP models projecting a decrease, and representing a 16% reduction relative to the 1981–2005 ensemble mean. Models' projections depict a large spread, with variability changes ranging from 0.23˚C to −0.50˚C. Internal variability is the main source of uncertainty until 2045 but model uncertainty dominates thereafter, eventually explaining up to 80% of the total uncertainty. The scenario uncertainty remains low (<1%) throughout the twenty‐first century. The total uncertainty on Atlantic Niño variability projections is not improved when considering only CMIP models with a realistic zonal equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient.
Funder
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences,Geophysics