Response of Tropical Overshooting Deep Convection to Global Warming Based on Global Cloud‐Resolving Model Simulations

Abstract

AbstractTropical overshooting deep convections (ODCs) play a vital role in vertical transport of boundary layer pollutants, especially short‐lived species, to upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, with important implications for stratospheric ozone and climate. We use simulations from a global cloud‐system resolving model, Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmosphere Model (NICAM), to study ODC changes from historical period to the end of the 21st century. NICAM well reproduces Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission‐satellite observed ODC spatiotemporal patterns. The future occurrences of ODCs with cloud top height above 15.5, 16.9, and 18.4 km scaled by the global temperature increase will increase by 7%/K, 27%/K, and 90%/K, respectively, over ocean where the atmosphere is becoming warmer and wetter. The corresponding changes are −1%/K, 10%/K, and 37%/K over land where the atmosphere will become hotter but drier. Relative to tropical cold point tropopause height, ODCs will only change by 3%/K, with 6%/K over the ocean but −3%/K on land.