Future Projections of Multiple Tropical Cyclone Events in the Northern Hemisphere in the CMIP6‐HighResMIP Models

Author:

Fu Zheng‐Hang1ORCID,Zhan Ruifen123ORCID,Zhao Jiuwei45,Yamada Yohei6ORCID,Song Kexin14

Affiliation:

1. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan University Shanghai China

2. Shanghai Qi Zhi Institute Shanghai China

3. Shanghai Key Laboratory of Ocean‐land‐atmosphere Boundary Dynamics and Climate Change Fudan University Shanghai China

4. School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (NUIST) Nanjing China

5. Institute of Climate and Application Research (ICAR) Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (NUIST) Nanjing China

6. Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) Tokyo Japan

Abstract

AbstractHow future multiple tropical cyclone events (MTCEs) could change is crucial for effective risk management and ensuring human safety, however, it remains unclear. This study projects changes in MTCEs by 2050 in the major basins of the Northern Hemisphere using high‐resolution climate models. Results show a significant increase in the frequency and duration of MTCEs over the North Atlantic (NA), a notable decrease over the western North Pacific (WNP), and little change over the eastern North Pacific (ENP). The increase in MTCEs over the NA is concentrated in August–September, while the decrease over the WNP occurs in most months. In contrast, the ENP exhibits large yet insignificant seasonal variation, suggesting considerable uncertainty in this basin. Further analysis shows that mid‐level vertical motion dominates the MTCE changes over the WNP, while vertical wind shear contributes the most to the NA, which may be linked to future changes in tropical convection.

Funder

National Natural Science Foundation of China

Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality

Publisher

American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Subject

General Earth and Planetary Sciences,Geophysics

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