Increasing Fire Weather Potential Over Northeast China Linked to Declining Bering Sea Ice

Abstract

AbstractNortheast China (NEC) is one of the most severely impacted regions by fire and biomass burning in the country. Notably, fires in this area have exhibited an increasing trend over the past decade, contrasting with the extensive pollution reduction observed in other parts of China. In this study, we combine observational data analysis and climate model simulations to demonstrate that the escalation of spring fire activities in NEC is likely induced by a decline in Bering Sea ice concentration during preceding months. This Arctic‐driven teleconnection contributes to increased temperatures and decreased precipitation in NEC through reduced vertical wind shear, anomalously northerly wind transport, and the formation of a high‐pressure center with descending airflow. These changes are conducive to fire ignition and expansion. Furthermore, this linkage may be amplified in future warmer scenarios. This mechanism holds significant implications for predicting decadal fire activity and furthering our understanding of global environmental projections.