ENSO and NAO Linkage to Strong Volcanism and Associated Post‐Volcanic High‐Latitude Winter Warming

Author:

Dogar Muhammad Mubashar12ORCID,Fujiwara Masatomo1ORCID,Zhao Ming3ORCID,Ohba Masamichi4,Kosaka Yu5ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Faculty of Environmental Earth Science Hokkaido University Sapporo Japan

2. Global Change Impact Studies Centre Ministry of Climate Change Islamabad Pakistan

3. NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton NJ USA

4. Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI) Abiko Japan

5. Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology (RCAST) The University of Tokyo Tokyo Japan

Abstract

AbstractHigh‐latitude winter warming was observed following strong tropical volcanism, which has long been believed to be due to the volcanic‐induced positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. However, recent works argue that this warming is caused by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability instead of volcanoes. Moreover, some studies further argue that El Niño and volcanoes work together to produce this post‐volcanic NAO winter warming. To better understand these arguments on post‐volcanic high‐latitude winter warming, we conducted ENSO‐preconditioned volcanic experiments. Our simulations strongly suggest that the post‐eruption Eurasian winter warming is caused by a post‐eruption positive NAO phase and not by coexisting ENSO‐preconditioned variability. Additionally, we find that the El Niño‐preconditioned volcanic eruption enhances the El Niño phase; however, the neutral and La Niña‐preconditioned eruptions do not lead to an ENSO–like response. These findings are helpful to better understand volcanic‐induced circulation impacts and have important implications for the interpretation of model results and post‐volcanic prediction.

Publisher

American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Subject

General Earth and Planetary Sciences,Geophysics

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