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An Intercomparison of Skill and Overconfidence/Underconfidence of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in Multimodel Seasonal Forecasts

  • Published:2018-08-08 Issue:15 Volume:45 Page:7808-7817
  • ISSN:0094-8276
  • Container-title:Geophysical Research Letters
  • language:en
  • Short-container-title:Geophys. Res. Lett.

Author:

Baker L. H.1ORCID,Shaffrey L. C.1ORCID,Sutton R. T.1ORCID,Weisheimer A.23ORCID,Scaife A. A.45ORCID

Affiliation:

1. National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology; University of Reading; Reading UK

2. NCAS, Department of Physics; University of Oxford; Oxford UK

3. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; Reading UK

4. Met Office Hadley Centre; Exeter UK

5. College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences; University of Exeter; Exeter UK

Funder

National Eye Research Centre

Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme

Publisher

American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Subject

General Earth and Planetary Sciences,Geophysics

Reference49 articles.

1. A multi-system view of wintertime NAO seasonal predictions;Athanasiadis;Journal of Climate,2017

2. Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation;Baker;International Journal of Climatology,2017

3. Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns;Barnston;Monthly Weather Review,1987

4. The climate-system historical forecast project: Do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?;Butler;Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,2016

5. An interannual link between Arctic sea-ice cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation;Caian;Climate Dynamics,2018

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