Dynamical Modeling of Fault Slip Rates at the New Zealand Plate Boundary Indicates Fault Weakness

Abstract

AbstractWe construct a thin‐sheet dynamical model of the New Zealand plate boundary that includes faults. Our model fits fault slip rates, style of distributed deformation, and is constrained by relative plate boundary motion. We assume a pseudo‐plastic rheology and achieve a best fit to slip rate observations with a deviatoric stress magnitude of 20 MPa. Modeled local forces are significant at Puysegur and Hikurangi subduction zones, and smaller forces are related to mantle downwelling beneath South Island and Havre Trough mantle upwelling. Modeled tractions on faults are mostly 5–20 MPa, similar to or slightly smaller than stress magnitudes adjacent to faults. Modeled shear tractions are generally 2–10 MPa, comparable to stress drops during earthquakes. Modeled stress orientations and fault dips suggest that many faults are not optimally oriented for their style of faulting. Notably small traction magnitudes of <5 MPa and shear tractions of <0.5 MPa are modeled for faults in the central North Island Dextral Fault Belt (NIDFB), which we infer to be very poorly oriented. Friction coefficients on faults (ratio of shear stress to effective normal stress) are in the range 0.1–0.3 for major crustal faults such as the Alpine Fault and Marlborough faults, but subduction zones and the NIDFB have values <0.1. We propose that low values of long‐term fault strength, shear stress resolved onto the fault, and overall magnitudes of deviatoric stress in the crust are a consequence of dynamic weakening of faults during fault slip.