The Monsoon's Influence on Central Asia's Subsequent Periods of Drought and Flooding

Abstract

AbstractCentral Asia and its southern neighbors are being ravaged by more frequent and intense droughts and floods. While research on droughts is abundant, their interaction with floods and monsoons, especially when originating in the south, has been understudied. This study employed temperature, precipitation, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and agricultural drought indices such as water deficit index (WDI), cumulative water deficit (CWD), and Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) to investigate the role of monsoons in increasing drought and flooding in the southern part of central Asia, including Afghanistan and Pakistan, over a 31‐year period. Findings revealed increasing severity and intensity of droughts over time, along with their duration and peaks, contrasting with irregular fluctuations in flood intensity. Rising regional temperatures coincide with declining precipitation. During summer monsoon (SM), average precipitation ranged from 0.03 mm/day (2004) to 0.05 mm/day (2010), with variations across the region. The temperature varied between −14.35°C (2009) and 37.05°C (1991), with a sharp increase up to 0.114°C in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, as well as in northern Pakistan, Afghanistan, and western Tajikistan. A temperature drop during SM was revealed on the Mountains range of Himalaya, Hindu Kush, Karakoram, Parmir, Kunlun Shan and Tian Shan, and in Pakistan, down to −0.054°C. WDI showed a strong positive connection (0.71 and 0.64) with temperature (Tmax and Tmin) and a weak negative correlation (−0.5) with precipitation during normal time. However, during the monsoon season, it demonstrated a negative correlation with both within a no significant (−0.08) range for maximum temperature.