Solar Influences on Winter Atmospheric Circulation Over the Ural, North Atlantic and North Pacific Regions: Pitchfork‐Like Relationships

Abstract

AbstractLi's previous study found a one‐to‐two correspondence relationship between the total solar irradiance (TSI) and monthly anomalies of the Ural atmospheric circulation during winter months. This relationship roughly meets the so‐called supercritical pitchfork bifurcation model, hence termed a pitchfork‐like (PL) relationship. Here, we extend this study and provide more evidence to support previous findings. By analyzing data from 192 winter months and estimating the joint probability density function, we find that over the Ural, North Atlantic, and North Pacific regions, there are all PL relationships between the TSI and geopotential height anomalies at pressure levels no higher than 700 hPa. When the TSI gradually decreases and passes a critical threshold of 1360.9 W m−2, the preferred circulation patterns undergo a regime transition from one regime to two others. When TSI < 1360.9 W m−2, positive and negative geopotential height anomalies occur at nearly equal frequencies within the same TSI range. This quantitative relation is met in almost the whole troposphere in each region. We suggest that the occurrence of PL relationships may be associated with the interaction between the westerly flow and topographic barriers; The decrease in TSI can regulate this interaction by reducing the stability of background westerly flow over all three regions, via increasing the land‐ocean thermal contrast and altering the planetary wavenumber‐2 wave at the mid‐high latitudes. Our work highlights the same quantitative relation between the TSI and the monthly mean geopotential height anomalies of three regions in winter, which has important implications for seasonal climate prediction.