Understanding the Physical Forcings Behind the Biogeochemical Productivity of the Hudson Bay Complex

Abstract

AbstractMultiple factors influence the spatial and temporal chlorophyll‐a concentration of marine systems. The Hudson Bay Complex has historically been seen as a large, low‐production inland sea situated in the north of Canada. However, recent field campaigns, for the BaySys project, have provided new data on primary production in the bay. Due to the Hudson Bay complex's positioning, it experiences seasonal sea‐ice cover and has many rivers draining into it, resulting in a unique estuarine‐like environment. We use the biogeochemical model BLINGv0 + DIC, coupled to the online regional physical oceanographic and sea‐ice models, NEMOv3.6 and LIM2, respectively, forced with two bias‐corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 climate forcings (MIROC5 and MRI) to simulate the base of the ecosystem. The simulations were evaluated with chlorophyll‐a satellite imagery and observations collected in 2018 and analyzed with Empirical Orthogonal Functions to understand the underlying physical forcings and key areas of chlorophyll‐a concentration distribution. The evaluation showed that both simulations successfully reproduced the sea‐ice melt, from west to east and formation, from north to south and correlated well with spatial bloom patterns. The main drivers of phytoplankton growth are the seasonal light and nutrient levels (48% and 54%), the mixed layer depth dynamics (18% and 14%), nutrient supply from rivers (13% and 8%), and sea ice production (7%) for the MIROC5 and MRI simulations, respectively. The sea‐ice dynamics and river runoff played a significant role in the system's productivity. Therefore, with future climate change and increased river regulation projects, up to 20% of overall chlorophyll‐a may be negatively impacted.